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本周金融市场受到美国感恩节假期的影响而出现了一些异常波动,疫苗消息带来的积极影响仍在发酵,这令市场风险情绪明显改观。尤其是在美国政权开始移交进程,这令华尔街最担心的政局不确定性开始消散。不过特朗普政府在当前任期的最后两个月里各种行动层出不穷,投资者担心可能会进一步激化中美紧张关系,从而在一定程度上限制风险情绪。
对于欧洲、英国、北美和亚洲部分地区来说,下周是本年度交易结束的开始。外汇和股票交易量将开始减少因为交易员和机构准备进行年底结算。另外美国大选的形势虽然依然吸引着市场的目光,但下周二就是英国脱欧“截止日期”。欧盟表示,届时必须达成一项协议,以确保欧盟成员国在12月31日前批准该协议。因此投资者需要谨防可能出现的意外情况。
同时,下周市场交易又会迎来月底再平衡资金流动的考验。Adrian Day资产管理公司首席投资官Adrian Day表示,他预计下周金价将走低,因在跌破200日移动均线后,市场还有进一步下跌空间。不过,他也表示,黄金的长期基本面仍然存在。“耶伦和鲍威尔将联合起来,支持从救助破产州到减免学生债务等各种没有资金支持的大规模支出。这种支出将对黄金非常有利。”
Harvest Volatility Management交易和研究主管Mike Zigmont表示。“风险资产的环境越来越好,因为制药商公布了更多的新冠疫苗积极数据,政治方面的风险也有所缓解。”
日期 | 经济指标 | 重要官员讲话 | 重要会议 | 其它重大事件 | |
时间 | 数据名称 | ||||
11.30 | 7:50 | 日本10月季调后零售销售(月率) | 18:00 欧洲央行行长拉加德将发表讲话 | 22:00 欧元区财长会议 | |
9:00 | 中国11月官方制造业采购经理人指数 | 第180届欧佩克大会召开 | |||
周一 | 23:00 | 美国10月NAR季调后成屋签约销售指数(月率) | 上合组织成员国政府首脑(总理)理事会会议 | ||
12.1 | 7:30 | 日本10月失业率 | 23:00 美联储主席鲍威尔出席听证会 | 欧元集团会议 | 经合组织公布经济展望报告 |
14:45 | 瑞士第三季度国内生产总值 | 11:30 澳洲联储利率决议 | |||
周二 | 18:00 | 欧元区11月消费者物价指数(年率)初值 | 英国脱欧截止日期 | ||
21:30 | 加拿大9月GDP | OPEC和非OPEC主要产油国召开第十二届部长级半年度会议 | |||
23:00 | 美国10月营建支出(月率) | ||||
23:00 | 美国11月ISM制造业采购经理人指数 | ||||
12.2 | 5:30 | 美国上周API原油库存变化(万桶)(至1127) | 08:00 澳洲联储主席洛威做证词 | ||
8:30 | 澳大利亚第三季度国内生产总值季率 | ||||
周三 | 18:00 | 欧元区10月生产者物价指数和失业率 | |||
21:15 | 美国10月ADP就业人数变动(千人) | 22:00 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯致词 | |||
21:30 | 加拿大第三季度劳动生产率(季率) | 23:00 美联储主席鲍威尔出席出席听证会 | |||
23:30 | 美国上周EIA原油库存变化(万桶)(至1125) | ||||
12.3 | 9:45 | 中国11月财新服务业和综合采购经理人指数 | 03:00 美联储公布经济状况褐皮书 | ||
18:00 | 欧元区10月零售销售月率 | ||||
周四 | 21:30 | 美国上周季调后初请失业金人数(千人)(至1031) | |||
12.4 | 8:30 | 澳大利亚10月季调后零售销售(月率) | 03:30 英国央行委员滕雷罗发表讲话 | ||
21:30 | 美国、加拿大10月贸易帐 | ||||
周五 | 21:30 | 美国10月季调后非农就业人口变动和失业率 | 22:00 芝加哥联储主席埃文斯出现线上问答活动 | ||
23:00 | 美国10月耐用品订单(月率)终值 |
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